Last quarter’s drop in the U.S. gross domestic product – the broadest gauge of economic output – does not likely signal the start of a recession.

It’s the bitterest of economic pills: High inflation mixes with a weak job market to cause a toxic brew that punishes consumers and befuddles economists.

The indexes, which recovered after being in the red in the early going, are on pace for a weekly gain, despite more up-and-down trading this week.

The risks to the world economy are leading to an increasingly gloomy view of the months ahead for corporate leaders, government officials and other VIPs gathered at the World Economic Forum meeting in Switzerland.

According to minutes from their May 3-4 meeting, most agreed that half-point hikes also ‘would likely be appropriate’ when they next meet in June and July.