As this session of the Maine Legislature begins to slowly and tortuously wind its way toward adjournment – whenever that may be – we are beginning to witness the shrinking influence the state governor has over the legislative process in their second term.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because it is. We frequently saw this happen with former Gov. Paul LePage, whose vetoes were often overridden with widespread bipartisan support. That trend increased exponentially during his second term, when Democrats held the majority and were more than willing to ignore his policy preferences. Gov. Janet Mills, by contrast, has enjoyed unified Democratic majorities in Augusta for most of her time in office.

During her first term, Mills pretty much got her way on every policy debate. It wasn’t just that Republicans were a nonfactor, either; they had a narrow Senate majority for her first two years but chose to work with the governor rather than seek out confrontation. While that helped Mills, it didn’t help Republicans, who didn’t really get much done and immediately lost their majority.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party stayed unified. Democrats didn’t often pass legislation that Mills opposed. When it did happen, they immediately reversed themselves. Mills hasn’t had to use her veto authority often. On the rare occasions that she has, the vetoes have always been upheld. That, however, may be about to change. If it does, the days of Democratic unity will go right along with it.

Mills faced difficult choices on a number of important pieces of legislation, most notably the tribal rights bill and the paid family leave bill. In both cases, the bills went further than she might have liked and, in both cases, they were top priorities for more progressive leaders in the Democratic Party.

Indeed, they indicate that members of her own party are beginning to look beyond Mills’ tenure, when they hope to pursue policies more liberal than the governor is willing to support. In other areas, like on gun control, several of those bills were stalled in the Maine Senate long before they reached the governor’s desk. Here, though, progressives have managed to push the legislation through, setting up a potential confrontation.

With the tribal rights bill – which isn’t quite so partisan or ideological as many other major issues – progressives have managed to draw support from some Republicans, setting up the possibility of her veto being overridden. In order to avoid that, she has two options: win over Republicans or convince progressives to back down.

While the former tactic worked in 2021, when Republicans helped uphold Mills’ veto of a bill proposing a takeover of Central Maine Power, this is a different dynamic. For one, most Republicans were ideologically opposed to that piece of legislation, so they weren’t as much helping Mills as they were staying true to their principles. For another, that was before majority Democrats pushed through their own budgets twice, completely ignoring Republicans as they did. The Republicans who support the tribal rights bill have no reason whatsoever to flip their position to help Mills. There’s nothing she can do politically to either entice or cajole them over to her side. Her only option is to encourage a genuine change of heart on their part.

It may be that Mills is able to convince enough Democrats to switch their votes. But she’ll have to do the outreach on her own, since Senate President Troy Jackson and House Speaker Rachel Talbot Ross both support the bill. On the paid family and medical leave bill, Mills decided to support it in the end, but she really didn’t have any choice – even if the legislation wasn’t what she wished. If she had vetoed the legislation, a pending citizen initiative could have placed it on the ballot for next fall anyway. That citizen initiative essentially gives progressives their own veto power over the governor. They backed her into a corner, leading her to support the bill.

Both of these bills represent a potentially troubling development: progressives working around the governor rather than trying to gain her support.

If successful, this tactic could encourage more costly referendum campaigns and lead to more intraparty fighting by Democrats. While that might produce some policy victories for liberals, it also could cost Democrats politically. Democrats have had a good run in Maine of late, but Maine is still a competitive state. If they go too far to the left, they may well be risking their majority.

Jim Fossel, a conservative activist from Gardiner, worked for Sen. Susan Collins. He can be contacted at:
jwfossel@gmail.com
Twitter: @jimfossel